What's up in space...

[Carmen Elsa Irarragorri Wyland]

Lights Over Lapland has a brand-new website full of exciting adventures in Abisko National Park, Sweden! Take a look at our aurora activities and book your once-in-a-lifetime trip with us today!

A NEW SUNSPOT: Breaking a string of 24 spotless days, a new sunspot is growing near the center of the solar disk. Here it is. Amateur astronomers with backyard solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor its development. After all, sunspot genesis is rare during solar minimum. Free: Aurora Alerts

AMATEUR ASTRONOMERS FIND A BRIGHT NEW COMET: There's a new comet in the morning sky. Discovered just last week by three amateur astronomers--one in Arizona and two in Japan--Comet Machholz-Fujikawa-Iwamoto (C/2018 V1) has quadrupled in brightness over the past few days. "It is now glowing like a fuzzy 8th magnitude star in the constellation Virgo," reports Michael Jäger of Turmkogel, Austria, who photographed it on Nov. 11th:

"The discovery of a comet by amateur astronomers is a rare event nowadays because robotic Near-Earth-Object search programs usually catch them first," he says. "My special congratulations to the three discoverers."

Comet Machholz-Fujikawa-Iwamoto appears to be a first-time visitor to the inner solar system. It is plunging toward the sun on nearly-parabolic orbit that will take it just inside the orbit of Mercury. Closest approach to the sun (0.38 AU) is on Dec. 3-4; closest approach to Earth (0.67 AU) is Nov. 27th.

Click to view the comet's 3D orbit

Fresh comets like this one are notoriously unpredictable. They can surge in brightness, seeming to promise a spectacular display, when suddenly they fizzle as fragile deposits of ice are exhausted by solar heat. No one knows if Comet Machholz-Fujikawa-Iwamoto will even become a naked eye object. At the moment it is an easy target for backyard telescopes with the promise of ... unpredictability. Stay tuned!

Resources: 3D Orbit; Ephemeris; Orbital Elements; Sky Maps.

Realtime Comet Photo Gallery

A GIFT FROM THE EDGE OF SPACE: Are you looking for a far-out Christmas gift? Nothing says "I love you" like a moonstone from the edge of space. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew this moonstone wrapped in a hand-crafted sterling silver Celtic love knot 35.1 km (115,158 feet) above Earth's surface:

You can have it for $179.95. The students are selling these pendants to support their cosmic ray ballooning program. Each one comes with a greeting card showing the item in flight and telling the story of its journey to the edge of space. All sales support the Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray ballooning program and hands-on STEM research.

Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education

AURORAS IN THE SHAPE OF A PHOENIX: Solar wind is blowing around Earth faster than 600 km/s. Last night, the onrushing gas sparked auroras over Norway in the shape of a Phoenix:

"The aurora show over Senja, Norway, on Nov. 11th was nothing short of magical," reports photographer Adrien Mauduit. "During one outburst of lights, this image appeared. Huge colorful pillars took the shape of a fiery bird."

According to mythology, the Phoenix dies in an outburst of colorful flame, then rises again. Indeed, the bird could return to the Arctic Circle on Nov. 12th as the solar wind continues to blow. Stay tuned. Free: Aurora Alerts.

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

TREMORS IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: Solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere has been buffeting Earth's magnetic field since Nov. 9th. Stuart Green detected the tremors from his private magnetic observatory in Preston, Lancashire, UK:

"The  solar wind delivered a double blow, moving magnetometer needles around the globe," reports Green. "The first wave arrived on November 9th at approximately 18:00 UT and lasted for 4.5 hrs. The second wave arrived almost 24 hrs later. It was less geoeffective than the first, although no less spectacular according to the beautiful images of the aurora being submitted to Spaceweather.com."

The squiggles in Green's chart represent changes in his local magnetic field. "The sensor is buried in my garden about 0.5 meters below the surface in an East/West orientation," he explains. "This allows very sensitive (sub nanotesla) measurements of magnetic declination during geomagnetic storms. The plot shows the change in magnetic flux density in nanotesla occurring between readings every few minutes."

Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery

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All Sky Fireball Network

Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.

On Nov. 12, 2018, the network reported 19 fireballs.
(17 sporadics, 2 Northern Taurids)

In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]

Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On November 12, 2018 there were 1936 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.SOMETHING NEW! We have developed a new predictive model of aviation radiation. It's called E-RAD--short for Empirical RADiation model. We are constantly flying radiation sensors onboard airplanes over the US and and around the world, so far collecting more than 22,000 gps-tagged radiation measurements. Using this unique dataset, we can predict the dosage on any flight over the USA with an error no worse than 15%.E-RAD lets us do something new: Every day we monitor approximately 1400 flights criss-crossing the 10 busiest routes in the continental USA. Typically, this includes more than 80,000 passengers per day. E-RAD calculates the radiation exposure for every single flight.The Hot Flights Table is a daily summary of these calculations. It shows the 5 charter flights with the highest dose rates; the 5 commercial flights with the highest dose rates; 5 commercial flights with near-average dose rates; and the 5 commercial flights with the lowest dose rates. Passengers typically experience dose rates that are 20 to 70 times higher than natural radiation at sea level.

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Velocity (km/s)	Diameter (m)
2018 VO5	2018-Nov-06	0.4 LD	12.2	16
2018 VB5	2018-Nov-06	16.7 LD	4.9	19
2018 VW	2018-Nov-06	15.4 LD	13	64
2018 VN1	2018-Nov-06	8.7 LD	5.2	21
2018 VU5	2018-Nov-06	7.9 LD	10.1	21
2018 VB7	2018-Nov-07	15.5 LD	7	37
2018 VP6	2018-Nov-07	7.8 LD	12.2	16
2010 VQ	2018-Nov-07	15.6 LD	3.8	10
2018 VS6	2018-Nov-08	1.5 LD	11.8	15
2018 VA2	2018-Nov-09	1.9 LD	6.7	14
2018 VG6	2018-Nov-09	15.8 LD	5.5	18
2018 VV4	2018-Nov-09	6.3 LD	10.6	18
2018 VR3	2018-Nov-09	1.9 LD	8.2	15
2018 VS4	2018-Nov-09	14.7 LD	10.1	26
2018 VM6	2018-Nov-10	9.3 LD	16.6	96
2018 VD5	2018-Nov-10	4.5 LD	9.4	9
2018 VS1	2018-Nov-10	3.6 LD	10.6	17
2018 VR1	2018-Nov-10	13.2 LD	9.3	18
2018 VX1	2018-Nov-10	1 LD	6.1	11
2018 VY4	2018-Nov-11	5.5 LD	12.6	14
2018 VH5	2018-Nov-11	6 LD	6	13
2018 VA4	2018-Nov-11	3.1 LD	7.4	8
2018 VZ6	2018-Nov-12	9.5 LD	10.3	27
2018 VN6	2018-Nov-12	1.9 LD	14.2	8
2018 VC7	2018-Nov-13	0.9 LD	4.5	12
2018 VR6	2018-Nov-13	8 LD	9.5	12
2018 VF5	2018-Nov-13	9.7 LD	6.8	11
2018 UQ1	2018-Nov-13	9.4 LD	12.3	146
2018 VO3	2018-Nov-14	4.1 LD	7.7	14
2018 VX5	2018-Nov-14	3.6 LD	8.3	25
2018 VK1	2018-Nov-14	10.2 LD	2.3	12
2018 VW4	2018-Nov-14	9.8 LD	12.5	45
2018 VD7	2018-Nov-14	9.1 LD	11	26
2007 UL12	2018-Nov-15	16.4 LD	25.8	235
2018 VT4	2018-Nov-18	11.1 LD	4.4	18
2018 VQ6	2018-Nov-20	11.4 LD	7.9	22
2009 WB105	2018-Nov-25	15.2 LD	18.9	71
2008 WD14	2018-Nov-27	7.4 LD	9.3	93
2001 WO15	2018-Nov-28	13.6 LD	11.7	107
2018 VE4	2018-Nov-30	15.1 LD	4.8	30
2018 TG6	2018-Dec-02	3.9 LD	1.4	12
2013 VX4	2018-Dec-09	4.1 LD	6.6	65
2018 VX6	2018-Dec-10	16.6 LD	11.2	71
2015 XX169	2018-Dec-13	17 LD	5.8	12
2017 XQ60	2018-Dec-21	11.3 LD	15.6	47
163899	2018-Dec-22	7.4 LD	6.2	1232
418849	2018-Dec-23	16.6 LD	17.6	269
2014 AD16	2019-Jan-04	12.9 LD	9.4	12
2016 AZ8	2019-Jan-07	11.6 LD	9.1	224
2013 YM2	2019-Jan-09	7.3 LD	4.3	20
	Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere

Daily Hot Flights: November 11, 2018

Ordered by Dose Rate

Flight	Dose Rate (x Sea Level)	Altitude (feet)	Origin	Destination	Duration
Top 5 (or less*) Charter Flights
WWI70-1541899915-dlad-6087141Worldwide Jet Charter 70	75.0	47000	Teterboro	Santa Ana	05:20:11
XOJ774-1541920151-1-0-79XOJET 774	74.4	47000	Teterboro	West Palm Be	02:14:43
WWI98-1541952094-dlad-6087968Worldwide Jet Charter 98	72.2	45100	Van Nuys	Teterboro	04:16:05
XOJ764-1541890871-6-2-70XOJET 764	72.2	45000	Chicago	Van Nuys	04:00:09
VPCTA-1541900558-dlad-6087160Panaviatic TA	67.8	45000	Fort Lauderd	Teterboro	02:19:27
Top 5 Commercial Flights
SWA4868-1541744772-airline-0748Southwest Airlines 4868	60.5	41000	Chicago	Newark	01:25:26
SWA5471-1541744772-airline-0878Southwest Airlines 5471	60.3	41000	Chicago	Washington	01:11:15
SWA2826-1541658375-airline-0106Southwest Airlines 2826	60.3	41000	Chicago	Washington	01:13:45
SWA1198-1541658375-airline-0493Southwest Airlines 1198	60.2	41000	Chicago	Washington	01:14:07
SWA9004-1541900231-adhoc-0Southwest Airlines 9004	60.2	41000	Chicago	Washington	01:13:45
Average 5 Commercial Flights
JBU362-1541744761-airline-0045JetBlue 362	39.4	35000	West Palm Be	New York	02:16:46
AAL302-1541658364-airline-0551American Airlines 302	39.3	34100	New York	Los Angeles	05:44:13
AAL1626-1541744767-airline-0264American Airlines 1626	39.3	36000	New York	Miami	02:23:51
DAL2750-1541744763-airline-0546Delta 2750	39.1	34000	Atlanta	Chicago	01:33:02
UAL1028-1541645886-fa-0001United 1028	39.1	34000	Newark	Los Angeles	05:32:56
Bottom 5 Commercial Flights
CPZ5706-1541658366-airline-0175Compass Airlines 5706	20.8	27000	San Jose	Los Angeles	00:53:58
AAL1457-1541744759-airline-0573American Airlines 1457	19.9	25000	Miami	New York	02:24:01
UAL420-1541744771-airline-0375United 420	19.2	26000	Los Angeles	San Francisc	00:55:41
SKW3316-1541744760-airline-0375SkyWest 3316	19.2	26000	Los Angeles	San Jose	00:54:12
SWA2655-1541744772-airline-0123Southwest Airlines 2655	17.9	25000	San Jose	Santa Ana	00:54:53

     * In some cases we may have less than 5 charter flights in a day on the top-10 busiest routes.

To measure radiation on airplanes, we use the same sensors we fly to the stratosphere onboard Earth to Sky Calculus cosmic ray balloons: neutron bubble chambers and X-ray/gamma-ray Geiger tubes sensitive to energies between 10 keV and 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Column definitions: (1) The flight number; (2) The maximum dose rate during the flight, expressed in units of natural radiation at sea level; (3) The maximum altitude of the plane in feet above sea level; (4) Departure city; (5) Arrival city; (6) Duration of the flight.

SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 18% since 2015:

The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.

En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:

In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x.

The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.

Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth's magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation